Tony Romo: Fantasy Stud or Dud?

The Counselor is IN:

Last year many fantasy experts ranked Tony Romo as a top 3 QB. This year Romo finds himself on the list to avoid and has dropped to the second or even third tier QBs and often out of the top 10. This is understandable when you compare his 2007 stats with 36 touchdown passes to last year's 26 tds. He did lower his interceptions from 19 to 14 but he lost 5 more fumbles in 2008.

Last year, many believed that Tony had his coming out in 2007. Now many of those same people are claiming that last season was the real Tony Romo and 2007 was a fluke. What is the real truth and what can we expect out of Tony for the 2009 NFL season?

My views on Romo might be tainted. I am a huge Cowboys fan (please don't hold it against me). I love the style of play of Romo on the field but do think he needs to reign it in a bit and more often take what is given to him rather than looking for the big play. That being said, I am trying to look at this from a pure fantasy perspective and not what I want see out of Romo.

Romo was injured in 2008 and missed three games. If you project out his average from last year over those three games he missed, Romo would have finished with 32 touchdowns and over 4200 yards (about the same as 2007 yards). Those are very good fantasy numbers. The only QBs to pass for more yards were Bress, Warner and Cutler in 2008. Rivers, Brees, and Warner were the only QB with more than 32 TDs.

As most fantasy experts are quick to point out, Romo did lose his best wide receiver in T.O. Owens accounted for ten touchdowns last year. Losing his best wide out could not help Romo's numbers, could it?

In 1995, the year Sterling Sharpe retired, Favre's stats increased with 5 more touchdowns and almost 600 more yards. I am not directly comparing Romo to Favre but there are some similarities. They both have similar style of play. They both had receivers that demanded the ball to be happy. They both forced numerous passes to that receiver that they should not have thrown. Both of the wide receiving corps were/are lacking a true WR1 without those WR stars. In one way Romo is better off than Favre was in 1995, he still has Jason Witten.

The Cowboys should be focusing on running the ball more often this season. They have a three headed monster in Barber, Felix Jones, and Choice. The renewed focus on the run should free up some of the receivers. All three of the runningbacks are capable receivers. If Felix catches the ball in the backfield or a quick route, he could easily take it to the house with his quickness. I think this will only benefit Romo's fantasy numbers.

I believe WR Roy Williams will make great strides this year. He spent a large amount of time with Romo working on plays and timing during the off season. He has had an opportunity to learn the playbook. He will not replace Owens but he should make the loss of Owen less painful for Romo's stats.

I am projecting Romo as a top tier QB this year. He would be at the end of my top tier but still a top guy. I can see him having 32 TDs and 4000 yards once again. This should be in the top 5 for both TD's and yards. He will have around 18 turnovers and that will drop him below guys like Brady, Peyton, and Brees but he should be in the same breath as these guys.

I would not draft Romo too early. He is lasting to the middle of the forth round in most current mock drafts . Do not take him before Brady, Brees, or Peyton. If they are off the board, then I would feel comfortable selecting him. I would continue to watch the trends and projections. If Romo continues to get blasted by the experts then you should be able to pick him up even later or for less $ in an auction league.

Unlike most other fantasy experts, I have Romo on the "pickup as a slight sleeper list" instead of the "avoid like the plague list". Only time will tell if I have read the tea leaves correctly or if I was just drinking the Blue and Silver Kool-Aid.


The Counselor is OUT:

The Fantasy Counselor is back

The Counselor is IN:

My wife and I had our second child, a little boy, three months ago. I forgot how much work a little one can be. Because my wife works in the evenings and I was getting around 4 hours sleep a night, I did not make opportunity to keep up this blog. My son is now sleeping much better which means I am not as exhausted and I have a bit more time.

From here out, you can expect regular updates to the Fantasy Sports Counselor and just in time for Fantasy Football prep. You will be given cheatsheets, articles on players, strategies and much more over the next two months. During the season will have the usual articles including my weekly fantasy injury report (and twice a week when there are early games)

Stay tuned for an article later this week on Tony Romo. I will be analyzing his value as a fantasy player and where I rank him among other QBs. We will examine what I believe the Cowboys can expect from his season. I will give my thoughts about his value in the Post TO era.

The Counselor is OUT:

BlogTalkRadio Share Show Widget

Upcoming Interview

The Counselor is IN:

As many readers know, I am a part of the dynamic duo of Internet radio personalities for Cowboys Pride Radio. This is a sports themed Internet radio show. Next Thursday night at 9:30 CDT, we will be interviewing the beautiful Grace Espinosa. Grace is a 2009 Hooters Calendar Girl and has been competing in the Hooters Calendar Girl of the Year contest which ends on Sunday. Grace is a huge fan of MMA and the New Orleans Saints. Please tune into our interview with Grace.

The Counselor is OUT:

A Tough Start: The Dan Haren Story

The Counselor is IN: Michael Kaplan

It is probably getting tougher and tougher for Dan Haren to go back to the stadium for each start. Haren has gotten a total of three runs in his first four starts from that Diamondback offense. After his first three starts, he was 0-3 with a 1.89 ERA. He is now 3-4 with a 2.09 ERA which is a less than mediocre record and a fantastic ERA. The Diamondbacks probably needed to hire a therapist to get Haren through these tough times. Haren should be somewhat used to low run support after his years on the A's, but nothing could prepare him for these hardships.

There is a more or less new statistic floating around baseball called quality starts (or QS). A starting pitcher can get a quality start if he lets up three or less runs in six or more innings. Mathematics have calculated the winning percentage of a quality start should be about 75%, which means a pitcher should win three out of every four games. This year Dan Haren has started eight games; he also has a total of eight quality starts. This means that he should have about six wins, not three.

Even though his support is low, he is still a great fantasy player. Hopefully, Haren can work through these tough times and just keep pitching how he's pitching. It would be a shame if his confidence was taken away because of lousy run support, but that is not likely to happen with a pitcher of his caliber. If he was on a team like Toronto, Boston, Los Angeles, or Texas, he might just be 8-0 and we would be talking about him like he was Zack Greinke or Roy Halladay. However, Dan Haren is on the low scoring, 29th ranked in the league to be exact, Arizona Diamondbacks so he is having one tough start.





The Counselor is OUT:

1st Round NFL Draft Coverage

The Counselor is IN:

I am live blogging the first round of the NFL Draft. I will update this post continually as the picks are selected.

1. Detroit - Matt Stafford, QB, Georgia

The Lions were able to get a deal done with Stafford and his agent last night. He will be the face of their franchise and he has the skills to be a franchise QB. I think Stafford will be a good QB as long as he does not get gun shy from being sacked continually like David Carr was a few years ago. He does have all the tools with arm strength and decision making.

2. St. Louis – Jason Smith, OT, Baylor
With Pace moving on from the Rams, the Rams needed to get their Left Tackle secure. I think this is a perfect pick for the Rams. They have their LT of the next 10 years. Many think they should have picked QB Sanchez, but I think was their best option at this pick.

3. Kansas City- Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU
Jackson is a great 3-4 DE and the Chiefs are changing to the 3-4 this year. I expected for them to pick Curry, the best player on the board. Jackson will be a great help for them with their defense and their line. This is not a bad pick but not the pick I would have made for them.


4. Seattle - Aaron Curry, OLB, Wake Forest
The Seahawks get a steal with Curry at four. In my opinion, he is the best prospect in the draft. He will be a name that the AFC West teams will fear for many years to come.


5. Cleveland – Trade the fifth pick to the New York Jets
The Jets send their 1st and second round picks and three players to the Browns


5. New York Jets – Mark Sanchez, QB, Southern Cal
The Jets needed a QB and Sanchez is their guy. I have a lot of questions about Sanchez. He is a system QB from Southern Cal. He only has one season of starting. He does have one more season than Matt Cassel had coming into last year. They will live or die with this pick.


6. Cincinnati – Andre Smith, OT, Alabama
Smith is a huge tackle with a lot of talent. There are questions about his decision making and about the combine issues. He can play very well but there are plenty of questions about how he will be as a person off the field and if he will get in trouble.


7. Oakland -Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland
This is a reach pick but what do we expect from the Raiders. Crabtree and Maclin were available. Why not trade down for Bey if you wanted Bey to be your guy. This makes no sense at all.


8. Jacksonville – Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia
This is a solid pick for the Jags. Monroe will be a great left tackle for them for years to come. I might have tried to trade down with a team that wants Crabtree but this is still a great pick.


9. Green Bay – B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College
Raji is a huge Defensive Tackle and will be a great fit in the 3-4 in Green Bay. The Packers need help stopping the run and Raji will instantly help them. This is a great pick!


10. San Francisco – Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
It is crazy that Crabtree slid all the way down to 10. Crabtree is great receiving prospect. I think he is the second best NFL prospect on the board. The 49ers were handed a gift.

11. Buffalo - Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB, Penn State

The Bills picked a pass rusher that they badly needed in Maybin. This should add some pop to their D-Line. This is a good pick for the Bills.

12. Denver – Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia

This is quite a pick. The Broncos have not drafted a top level Runningback in numerous years. He is a fast back and will be an interesting player for them. They had a lot of other needs like linebacker that I thought would be a better pick. I don’t even have Moreno as the top runningback on the board.

13. Washington – Brian Orakpo, DE/OLB, Texas

This is a great pick for the Redskins. Orakpo fell right into their laps. I thought he would have been gone long before this pick. This will make the Redskins much more nasty on defense.

14. New Orleans- Malcolm Jenkins, DB, Ohio State

Jenkins is a great fit with the Saints. The Saints need a lot of help at Corner and Safety. He should be a defensive playmaker for the Saints. I love this pick for the Saints.

15. Houston- Brian Cushing, OLB, Southern Cal

A perfect fit for a team that is in desperate need for a playmaker at outside linebacker. They also need major help at safety but they should be able to address it in the second round.

16. San Diego- Larry English, OLB, Northern Illinois

This is bit of a surprise for me. English is a good outside linebacker and pass rusher. This should help the Chargers and he may be a good compliment to Merriman. It is not a bad pick but was not what I expected at sixteen.

17. Cleveland –(pick from the Jets) traded to Tampa Bay

17. Tampa Bay – Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State

Is there a team that needed a top level QB more than Tampa? I am not a huge fan of Freeman but he could be the QB of the future for Tampa who has not had a franchise QB in a long time. He does have a great arm and great QB size. I am not a believer in his decision making but if he sits for a year then maybe he will develop into the Quarterback that the Bucs need.

18. Denver (f/CHI)- Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee

Ayers has a ton of potential. He was only a one year starter and is not a master sac artist. He brings intensity and was great at tackling and making plays. This pick should instantly help their defense.

19, Cleveland –(pick from Tampa Bay) - Traded to Philadelphia

19. Philadelphia – Jeremy Maclin, WR, Mizzou

What a steal for the Eagles. Maclin should not have made it out of the top 12. The Eagles trade up and get a difference maker at receiver. He should a wonderful compliment to DeShawn Jackson. McNabb will not have the ability to complain about not having a WR.

20. Detroit (f/DAL) – Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State

The Lions just picked up Stafford and he needs targets. He is a good blocking TE and a receiving TE. I thought they should have picked an offensive tackle in this position at this position but Pettigrew is a good pick up.

21. Cleveland –(pick from the Eagles) - Alex Mack, C, California
Mack can play either Center or Guard. He is a really good lineman. I would have rather had one of the top OT which are left like Oher. Yes they actually made their pick this time.

22. Minnesota – Percy Harvin, WR, Florida

This is an interesting pick for the Vikings. Harvin has a lot of questions around his behaviors and off field life. The Vikings just cleaned house of their character issue players which makes this pick strange. He had a positive test for pot at the combine. He has a ton of talent and Harvin was a stud in for the Gators.

23. New England – Traded to Baltimore for the 26th pick and a 5th round pick.

23. Baltimore– Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss
What a great story Oher is personally. He also is a heck of a OT. Flacco must be loving this pick. Oher will be protecting Flacco for a long time to come.

24. Atlanta – Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss

Jerry is a top notch defensive tackle. He will bring intensity and toughness to that defense. The Falcons are only getting better.

25. Miami – Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois

Davis has slide down to the Dolphins and the Tuna must be ecstatic. Many experts had Davis as a better CB than Jenkins. This is just what the Dolphins needed. He is a little bit of a project but he has great ability.

26. New England – (pick from the Ravens) traded to the Packers for the Packer’s second and 2 third round picks.

26. Green Bay – Clay Matthews, OLB, Southern Cal

This pick is all about the Packers’ switch to the 3-4 defense. They need playmakers in their linebacking group. Matthews is a good player who should help them with this transition. A very good pick for the Packers.

27. Indianapolis – Donald Borwn, RB, UConn

This is a strange pick. The Colts have a bunch of needs on the Defensive side. They have Addai and Hart so what is this pick about.

28. Buffalo (f/CAR via PHI) –Eric Wood, C, Louisville

Wood is one of the best Centers in the draft. This should help the offensive line for the Bills. They had a bunch of needs and Center was not the pick I would have made but it is a good pick for them.

29. New York Giants – Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina

Nicks is a big receiver in the model of Burress. He is a jump ball WR and has good hands. He should be a good target for Manning in the Red Zone and across the middle.

30. Tennessee – Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers

The Titans have needed a top level WR for years. They are hoping that Britt can be this guy. He is a big and physical WR that catch the ball over the middle.

31. Arizona – Chris “Beanie” Wells, RB, Ohio State

This is a steal for the Cardinals at 31. Wells was the best RB in the draft in my opinion. He is quick through the line and has a noise for the endzone. The Cards were dead last in running the ball last year during the season. This is a great pick for them.

32. Pittsburgh – Evander Hood, DT, Missouri

Hood was a stud for Mizzou up front. This is a great pick for the Steelers. They could have ILB Rey Maualuga instead but Hood is a good pick. The Steelers will be a little younger on the Defensive Line.

That is the end of the first round. Thanks for joining me for my thoughts on the first round selections.

The Counselor is OUT:

Mock Draft Time

The Counselor is IN:

Saturday April 25 and Sunday April 26 is the NFL Draft. The Draft has become a huge deal for all NFL fans. Mock drafts are extremely popular. The Fantasy Sports Counselor is trying his hand at it below. If you would like to try your hand at it before Saturday's kickoff, you can join a Mock Draft Challenge at either Cowboys Pride or Sports Jabber, I know I did.

I will be blogging the draft live on FSC.

1. Detroit - Matt Stafford, QB, Georgia

Stafford is the consensus pick with this point. Detroit could also pick OT Smith or OLB Curry but I would bet on Stafford.

2. St. Louis – Jason Smith, OT, Baylor

Smith is a no brainer for the Rams after losing LT Pace to Chicago.

3. Kansas City - Aaron Curry, OLB, Wake Forest

Curry is the best player in the draft. The Chiefs badly need to revitalize their defense and Curry may be the next coming of Derrick Thomas.

4. Seattle – Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia Mark

I am not confident with this pick. I could see them going with Crabtree to bring in their WR of the future to go along with Housh. I could see them pick a stud DL like Orakpo or Raji or Maybin. Many believe that they will pick QB Sanchez as the future replacement for Hasselbeck. But with their stud LT Walter Jones coming to the end of his career, I think they will go with Monroe.

5. Cleveland – Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech

The Browns could also go many ways but with Edwards being shopped by Cleveland, they will need a go to receiver for Quinn. Crabtree is the best WR in the bunch and may be a steal at five. If Edwards is not moved, then they may go with a defensive line stud like Raji.

6. Cincinnati – B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College

The Bengals have plenty of needs. If Crabtree is still around, he might be too much temptation to avoid. Their biggest needs are their lines and Raji is a stud. With the allegations against him proven false, I think Raji will be their pick.

7. Oakland - Jeremy Maclin, WR, Mizzou

With Al Davis making the calls, you never know who he will draft. Davis does love speedy WRs. Maclin is the second best WR in the draft and he is plenty fast. There are faster WRs in the draft but none with Maclin’s abilities.

8. Jacksonville – Trade Pick to Denver

8. Denver – Mark Sanchez, QB, Southern Cal

After trading off Cutler, Denver needs a QB of the future. Denver will be a good destination for Sanchez and he could compete this year with Orton. It is more likely for Sanchez to ride the bench for a year and then take the reigns. They could focus on their defense but they are only going to trade up to get their QB of of the future.

9. Green Bay – Brian Orakpo, DE/OLB, Texas

The Packers will be very excited if Orakpo falls to them at nine. They are switching to the 3-4 and need a OLB/DE hybrid and Orakpo is the best one on the board.

10. San Francisco – Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB, Penn State

Mike Singletary is a defensive kind of guy. He wants to improve the 49ers and he will do it with his stamp on them. Maybin has great potential and should be a great pick for the 49ers.

11. Buffalo – Everette Brown, DE/OLB, Florida State

The Bills need a pass rusher. Brown is quick and powerful enough to get to the QB.

12. Jacksonville - Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss

Jacksonville is looking for a stud lineman. They could have taken Oher at Eight but was still able to pick him up while trading down, paying less for him, and picking up an extra late round pick.

13. Washington – Andre Smith, OT, Alabama

LT Chris Samuels is not a spring chicken. Smith can come in and start at RT and develop as their LT of the future. They could take Oher here if he is still on the board.

14. New Orleans – Malcolm Jenkins, DB, Ohio State
The Saints could go for a complimentary RB for Bush or a stud LB but I think they will try to fill their need in the secondary. Jenkins can play either CB or Safety but will probably be their starting CB.

15. Houston – Brian Cushing, OLB, Southern Cal

The Texans need to upgrade their safeties badly but should be able to find a major upgrade in the second round. They need a RB to help out Slaton and may be tempted by Wells. They could use another good DE to rush the passer but they did spend the money in free agency so that will not be their top priority. They also need a stud OLB and Cushing is just what they orders.

16. San Diego – Rey Maualuga, ILB, Southern Cal

The Chargers are looking for the best player available. Maualuga has been free falling on the draft board for a couple of months and this is a great value pick for the Chargers. Maualuga is a from USC and should fit in just fine in San Diego.

17. NY Jets – Chris “Beanie” Wells, RB, Ohio State

The Jets could try to move up for a chance at QB Sanchez or go after a WR like Heyward-Bey. Thomas Jones is aging and Wells can be RB of the future for the Jets.

18. Denver (f/CHI) – Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU

The Broncos need a stud DE. Jackson is a speedy intense defensive playmaker. It is a chance that they may have selected Jackson at 12 if they had not traded up.

19. Tampa – Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State

The Bucs have not have a QB to get excited about for many years and Freeman appears to have the skills of a Pro QB. The Bucs could easily try to fill some of their Defensive needs with this pick but I think Freeman is too inviting for them to pass up with this pick.

20. Detroit (f/DAL) – Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee

The Lions could easily go OL with this pick. I think they will look to help their poor defense with a pick like Ayers.

21. Philadelphia – Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia

The Eagles need a stud TE and RB to compliment Westbrook. Moreno will be a great change of pace to Westbrook and Moreno will be an every down back if Westbrook is injured. Moreno is a good blocker and could be on the field with Westbrook as a WR.

22. Minnesota – Eben Britton, OT, Arizona

The Vikes are looking OL and CB help. Britton is a rock solid RT. They could look at Center or CB Davis but I think they will go with a tackle.

23. New England – Clay Matthews, OLB, Southern Cal

The Patriots need to develop youth in the linebacker corp. Matthews is a really good OLB and may be better than his highly touted USC counterpart- Cushing.

24. Atlanta – Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State

The Falcons need a top notch TE. Pettigrew is the best in the class. He can catch and block which is a plus in this TE class. They will be very excited if Pettigrew is still available at 24.

25. Miami – Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois

The Dolphins could draft any numerous players with this pick. They could pick a DL or LB. It is likely that they will check out the WRs at this level. With Davis still out there, I think Parcells will try to shore up his secondary with this pick.

26. Baltimore – Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland

The Ravens need a WR that can make plays. Heyward-Bey is a very fast but also big target. He should have been off the board much earlier. This pick will help Flacco instantly.

27. Indianapolis – Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss

The Colts need a run stopping tackle to help plug the leak up the middle. Jerry is a perfect fit for them. They could pick a WR at this spot but I think they will go with Defense.

28. Buffalo (f/CAR via PHI) – Alex Mack, C, California

The Bills can go a lot of different ways with this pick. I think they will be looking to pick up a good lineman. Mack can play several different roles on the OL.

29. New York Giants – Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers

The Giants need a WR that can makes plays for them like Burress used to. Britt is a big WR like Burress. They may choose to go with WR like Harvin.

30. Tennessee – Evander Hood, DT, Missouri

The Titans need to find a DT after losing Haynesworth. Hood is not at that level yet but he was a stud at Mizzou and should develop into one with the Titans.

31. Arizona – William Beatty, OT, Connecticut

Beatty has a ton of potential as a O-Lineman. Arizona is looking for the best player to draft.

32. Pittsburgh – James Laurinaitis, LB, Ohio State

The Steelers pick up a steal (literally) with picking Laurinaitis at the very end of the first round.

The Counselor is OUT: