National League Preview

The Counselor is IN: 


(Original article posted in the March Edition of Sports Jabber Magazine)


Spring Training is in full swing.  The fans are optimistic about their teams since every team is undefeated.  The itch for green grass, cold beer, and the smell of hot dogs entangle the fans. Hope springs eternal during Spring Training.

It is also the time of the year where the prognosticators bring out their crystal balls in an attempt to clearly see October.  I will pretend I am Carnac the Magnificent and give my predictions.

NL East
1) Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have the best rotation in baseball: Halladay; Lee; Hamels; Oswalt; and Blanton.  They won 97 games last season before adding Cliff Lee. At times last year, they struggled to score runs and having lost Jason Werth is not going to help.  They should have more than enough starting pitching to make up for it and to have the best record in the National League.

2) Atlanta Braves
The Braves are an up and coming team.  Too bad they are in the same division as the Phillies.  The team’s big names are Heyward, McCann, and Uggla. The pitching staff is lead by Tim Hudson, Derrek Lowe, and Jair Jurrjens. I expect the Braves to contend for the Wild Card.

3) Florida Marlins
The Marlins are a good team that could compete in most other divisions.  They have a good starting pitching staff: Johnson; Nolasco; and the inconsistent Javier Vazquez.  Hanley Ramirez is the star of this team as a Short Stop.  The Marlins can make some noise but it will be tough in this division.  

4) New York Mets
Just examine the big names (at least before they become Mets): Santana; Beltran; Wright; Reyes; Bay; and Rodriguez.  Every season, this team looks great on paper but they do not fulfill their potential.  I don’t think this season will be any different. It looks like the same old Mets to me.

5) Washington Nationals
I really like the Nationals in five years if they keep their young players and do not trade them away. They are building something special in Washington but they are not there yet.  They did bring in Jason Werth to add to the veteran presence of Livan Hernandez and Pudge Rodriguez.  This team will surprise some people but will not win more than 75 games.


NL Central
1) Milwaukee Brewers
This division is the hardest to judge. I could see any of the top four teams winning this division.  The addition of Zach Greinke tips the Brewers over the top for the division in my opinion.  Braun, Hart, and Fielder lead this team’s offense. The Brewers should win this division in a tight race.

2) Cincinnati Reds
The Reds won the division last season with 91 wins and will compete for it this season. The offense will be good with Votto, Bruce, and Rolen leading it.  The pitching staff should be decent but they do not have the one good Ace on their team.  They will be in the hunt for the NL Central and the Wild Card.

3) Chicago Cubs
The Cubs have a good rotation if they can stay healthy but their offense is not frightening too many people.  The addition of Garza to the rotation with Dempster and Zambrano should be formidable.  They will put pressure on the Brewers and Reds but in the end they will fall apart as usual.

4) St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals went from the top of the division for these rankings to the fourth when Adam Wainwright injury requring Tommy John elbow surgery.  He is done for the season.  The Cards still have their “Co-Ace” Carpenter but he will be 36 in April.  Albert is still a stud but will the non-contract extension lead to distractions later in the season.  The Cards could still win this division but I think the odds are becoming stacked against them.

5) Houston Astros
The Astros will miss Oswalt, who they traded last year at the trade deadline.  Wandy Rodriguez is close to becoming the Ace of this staff.  Brett Myers is a good pitcher.  This team looks like they have too little offense to make a run at the division title but they should be close to being a .500 team.

6) Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates lost 105 games last season.  It appears they will lose another 100+ games this season.  They have a few really good pieces like 3B Pedro Alverez  and OF Andrew McCutchen. But the Pirates do not have enough talent to be competitive.  


NL West
1) San Francisco Giants
The World Champs should win the NL West.  Their rotation is really good with Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez leading the way.  In the Bullpen, Fear the Beard will continue to close games down.   Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey are young cornerstone to the offense of this team.  The Giants will be hard pressed to win the series again but they should make the playoffs and anything can happen once you make the playoffs.

2) Colorado Rockies
The Rockies have a lineup of young position players who have a ton of upside. They will soon be a team to be feared with Ian Stewart, Carlos Gonzalez, Seth Smith, and of course SS Troy Tulowitzki. They have a decent pitching staff lead by Ace Ubaldo Jimenez and Closer Huston Street.  This team is good and could fight for the NL West and the NL Wild Card.

3) LA Dodgers
The Dodgers have a decent team with a good pitching staff. The rotation is solid with Kershaw, Billingsley, Lilly, and Kuroda. They have a couple of outfielders leading their offense in Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier.  They should be around .500 again this season.  They could get hot and contend but I would not count it.

4) San Diego Padres
The Padres overachieved last year when they won 90 games. I would not look for them to overachieve again. They will be lucky if they go .500 this season.  Mat Latos is a stud young pitcher who is developing into a true Ace.  The rest of the staff is decent but not good enough to content for the NL West this season.  

5) Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks have a good offense.  They are going to need it if they are going to win games.  Justin Upton, Chris Young, Kelly Johnson are upper level players that have major upside.  Their pitching staff is below average.

NL Wild Card: Atlanta Braves
NL Champion:  Philadelphia Phillies
World Series Champ: Philadelphia Phillies

NL MVP: Ryan Braun
Runner Up: Albert Pujols

NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay
Runner Up: Zach Greinke

 The Counselor is OUT:

Fantasy Baseball- What Kind of League is right for you - part 3

The Counselor is IN:

This is a series to assist fantasy owners in selecting the best kind of league for you. Fantasy Baseball has numerous variations and differences which can either enhance your fantasy experience or lessen the enjoyment. I hope to bring some understanding for those new to Fantasy Baseball and give some options to the savvy veteran owners.

Fantasy Baseball Draft vs. Auction

Draft Leagues uses a method of taking turns to pick the players you want for your team.  The most common draft style is the snake draft.  The snake draft has the teams set in order.  If there are ten teams in the league (most leagues have between 8 and 16 teams), then it will go from 1 to 10 in order for the first round. Then the second round goes back from 10 to 1. This order is usually set up as either random or the inverse order of where teams finished from the last season.  

Ideally the draft should set up teams to have the teams have a fairly even superstar, great players, good players, average players, and sleepers.  The teams rarely work out that way but ideally by taking turns, the teams should be evenly matched.

Auction leagues are set up with each team having a set amount of auction dollars (not real money) and bidding on players.  The most common dollar amounts allotted teams is $260 since that was the amount used in the original rotisserie leagues. This can vary from league to league. In most leagues, the auction dollars are only tracked during the draft but some leagues will ensure that you stay under the cap during the entire season.

The auction owners take turns with one owner throwing out a player for a specific dollar amount (usually in $1 increments).  Each owner is given a chance to bid more on the player. When no one else bids a higher amount on the player, the owner who bid the most gets the player.  The money bid on that player is subtracted from owners allotted money. Then the next owner throws out a player and the process begins again.  You do have to have enough money to fill your entire roster.  There is equal opportunity for every owner to get specific players.  

There are very different strategies for each style.  The snake draft strategy is to spend the early round picking the stud players.  You need ;to get the big names early or you will not pick them up.  The middle rounds should be used to pick up good players to fill in your active roster.  The last rounds are used for picking up those flyer players and the undervalued guys.

The auction is a very different creature.  In the early rounds when people have a ton of money, you are often better served by throwing out players either you do not want or you do not want at the price that others will want them for. You do not want to sit back and wait for all the good players to be taken but you can be wise on what players you are willing to pay for early.  Some owners will draft early and overpay for players and be left with very little money for the rest of their team.  Other owners will sit back and keep all their money and not be able to get the top level players.  You do not want to be either team.  
If your auction is a live in person draft, then there is strategy to reading the other owners and bidding up players so they get the player at a higher amount of money.  Be aware of this strategy because you can find the other owner was doing the same thing to you or they had a hard number they were willing to pay for players.  Never bid a dollar more for a player than you are willing to get the player for.

The Counselor is OUT:

 

Fantasy Baseball- What Kind of League is right for you - part 2

The Counselor is IN:

This is a series to assist fantasy owners in selecting the best kind of league for you. Fantasy Baseball has numerous variations and differences which can either enhance your fantasy experience or lessen the enjoyment. I hope to bring some understanding for those new to Fantasy Baseball and give some options to the savvy veteran owners.

Redraft vs Keeper vs Dynasty

Redraft leagues are fantasy leagues where your league redrafts or re-auctions a team every season.  You get a fresh start at picking players every year. If you did poorly one season, then the next year you get a clean slate.  The same is also true if you won the league the season before. There is no reward to picking up potential players unless they break out this season.  It is better in these leagues to leave potential players for others to gamble on and pick up the proven commodities except as a late round selection or a cheap auction pick up.  

Keeper Leagues are leagues that allow you to carry a predetermined amount of players from one season to the next.  I have seen leagues that allow you to keep 3 players and leagues that allow you to keep 15 players from season to season.  In auction leagues, you can usually keep the player for the amount you drafted them at for a limited time.  Some leagues have contracts for auction leagues that you sign players longer term but then you have to keep those signed players. In draft leagues, often you can keep the player at the draft round you picked them up for.  In other draft leagues, the kept players come off of the amount of players you can draft.  

Keeper Leagues do reward you for draft well one season to the next since you can keep a certain amount of players.  A strategy in keeper leagues is to pick up some players with potential or that are rookies.  Since you can keep these players year to year, you might be able to find the next Pujols for a bargain basement price.  But you should primarily pick up trusted veterans for most of your team if you want to win now.  

Dynasty Leagues are similar to keeper leagues in the fact you can keep your players.  In most Dynasty Leagues, you can keep your entire roster from season to season.  You have a draft or auction every season to pick up free agents and rookies after the initial season’s auction or draft.  Players with potential and youth are a premium in these leagues.  Since you can carry the entire roster to the next season for the entire existence of the league, you need to think about winning now and you need to pick ups veterans but also need to think about how to win in 5 years from now.  

Part 3 will discuss the differences of Draft (AKA Snake Drafts) vs Auctions.

The Counselor is OUT:

    

Fantasy Baseball- What Kind of League is right for you - part 1- Roto vs H2H

The Counselor is IN:

This is a series to assist fantasy owners in selecting the best kind of league for you. Fantasy Baseball has numerous variations and differences which can either enhance your fantasy experience or lessen the enjoyment. I hope to bring some understanding for those new to Fantasy Baseball and some options to the savvy veteran owners.

Rotisserie vs Head to Head
Rotisserie Baseball, named for a  New York City restaurant where the concept was originated, - La Rotisserie Française, was the original fantasy sport.  Roto (short for Rotisserie Ball) complies statistics through out the season.  The stats are broken down into categories, usually between 8 and 12 categories.  The stat categories are split with half on offense and half on pitching. Typical statistic categories often are Homers, RBI, Stolen Bases, and Average on Offense and ERA, WHIP (Walks+Hits/Innings Pitched), Wins, and Saves for pitching. Your stat categories are compared to all the teams in the league and each category is ranked.  If there are 10 teams in a league, a team will be give 10 points for the best in that category and all the way down to one point for the worst in the category.  Your points for each category are added together for a grand total.  The team with the most grand total points at the end of the season wins the league.  Your position in the league can change greatly day to day.  Earlier in the season the changes are more dramatic than later in the season.  In a league with 8 categories and 10 teams, an owner could have as much as 80 points or as little as 8 points at any time.  It is difficult to come close to the max or minimum points.

Head to Head is much more like Fantasy Football and is becoming more popular every season because of it. You play against another team in your league each week.  You are given points for winning categories against your weekly opponent (categories are the same type as used in Roto leagues). Those points compile to determine your ranking in the league.  The top teams make the playoffs.  The playoffs are usually win the week and play the next round, lose and go home. The best regular season team does not often win the league.

There are some strategic differences in the leagues.  In a Roto style, a team needs to be somewhat productive in category to be successful. With Head to Head, you can punt or minimized productivity in a category such as Saves or Steals and still win the league. I am a firm believer in not punting categories but some people are successful using this strategy

Part 2 will discuss Redraft Leagues vs Keeper Leagues vs Dynasty Leagues


 The Counselor is OUT:

Greatness of Fantasy Baseball is also Detriment

The Counselor is IN:

Ten years ago, Fantasy Football was only for sports geeks like me. Over the last decade, Fantasy Football has taken the nation by storm. It is no longer just for stat nerds.  I now know a higher percentage of people who participate in Fantasy Football than don’t. There are leagues for all levels of fans including Girls Only Leagues where it is accepted to pick players by the color of their jerseys and tightness of their behind sides.

Fantasy Baseball has not enjoyed the mainstream focus that Fantasy Football has.  Fantasy Baseball is the the father of all fantasy sports.  It was the original.  Yet it is primarily only for stat geeks. Most of the die hard baseball fans I know do not play fantasy baseball.  They only care about the stats of their team and do not desire to be distracted with Fantasy Baseball.

In my opinion, the greatness of Fantasy Baseball is also its detriment when it comes to attracting the mainstream public. This applies to both the traditional Rotisserie and the Head to Head Fantasy Baseball games. I will list four points why I think Fantasy Baseball is a superior game and why it limits the marketability of it.

1) Seven days a week compared one game a week.
There are baseball games every day of the week.  Most MLB position players will play 5-6 games a week. This compared to one game a week with the NFL unless it is their bye week.  

Advantage: One bad game will not kill you when you have several games a week. If your Star power hitting Outfielder strikes out 5 times in one game, he has the chance to come back and hit .400 and 4 homers for the rest of the week. In NFL, if your star Wide Receiver is shut out from catching the ball then you get no points for him.

Disadvantage: Many people don’t desire to keep up with their players every day of the week.  In a Head to Head league, you often change your line up daily.  In a traditional Rotisserie league, you still have to examine injuries, DL stints, and pick up for under performing players.

2) Fantasy Baseball season is longer than Fantasy Football.
Fantasy Baseball season is usually over 20 weeks and then the playoffs. The Fantasy Football season is usually 13-14 weeks and then the playoffs.

Advantage: The longer Baseball season help the cream float to the top. Some teams will start off fast but they have to maintain the pace. It is a marathon instead of the sprint of Fantasy Football.

Disadvantage: We are a fast food generation. We want things quick and fast and get bored with things that take time. Many Fantasy Baseball owners will get bored and stop paying attention after the first month. These owners rarely return next year.

3) Defense is half of your stats in baseball.
Pitching is half of your stats. Fantasy Football rarely uses defensive stats. A small minority use Individual Defensive Players. Even with IDP, the offense stats usually over weigh the IDP stats.

Advantage: Pitching is a key to baseball and is half of the stats of Fantasy Baseball leagues. It allows the owners to find a balance between their offensive and defensive teams. It is a closer representative of owning your own team. Defensive is a huge part of any NFL game but is rarely relevant in Fantasy Football.

Disadvantage: Offense is “sexy”. Chicks dig the long ball. Many fans do not care about defense and do not wan to mess with tracking stats for it.

4) Baseball is more entrenched with stats than football.
Statistics are a for most baseball fans. Football fans are not usually that focused on the stats.  

Advantage: Fantasy sports are based on statistics and comparing to other teams stats.  Fantasy Baseball is tied closely to specific statistics. Many fans can rattle off what the stats of their favorite players. It is a perfect marriage.

Disadvantage: It is difficult to change and tweak the stats used in Fantasy Baseball because of the tradition. It is much easier to change the values of a touchdown, field goal, or 10 yard rush.

 The Counselor is OUT: